WASHINGTON — Marcus Thorne, a senior policy advisor on the National Economic Council, resigned this week after a White House ethics review flagged his involvement in online prediction markets where he bet on the timing and content of President Trump's public speeches.
Thorne wagered on platforms including PredictIt and Polymarket, placing bets on the dates of specific policy announcements and the inclusion of certain phrases in presidential addresses. One significant bet involved the timing of the administration's trade tariffs on Chinese technology goods.
Sources close to the review said Thorne profited approximately $85,000 over 18 months from the wagers. His largest single payout—$18,000—came from a bet correctly predicting the precise day Trump would announce his support for the CLARITY Act, a market-structure bill.
Thorne joined the NEC in early 2025 and worked directly under Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on digital asset policy. His access to internal policy discussions and draft presidential remarks would have given him a clear advantage in those markets.
Federal ethics rules prohibit executive branch employees from financial activities that create an appearance of impropriety or involve confidential government information.
A White House spokesperson, speaking on background, confirmed Thorne's departure but declined to comment on the specifics of the ethics review. The spokesperson said all White House staff are expected to uphold the highest standards of conduct.
Thorne, through an attorney, declined to comment. Allies argue prediction markets are public forums and that his bets reflected informed analysis rather than insider trading—a defense unlikely to sway federal ethics investigators.
The Office of Government Ethics is reviewing the White House's internal findings. Potential outcomes range from a public reprimand to a referral to the Department of Justice, depending on the severity and intent of the actions.
This is not the first time a federal employee has faced scrutiny for using prediction markets. Several mid-level agency officials were reprimanded in 2023 for similar activities tied to economic data releases, though none involved a White House role as senior as Thorne's.
