HAVANA — Raúl Castro did not appear at Cuba's official July 26 celebration marking the 73rd anniversary of the Moncada Barracks attack, breaking decades of tradition for the former president and Communist Party first secretary. President Miguel Díaz-Canel led the ceremony in Santiago de Cuba.
Castro, 95, officially stepped down as first secretary in April 2021, but his presence behind the scenes remained significant. His absence fuels speculation about his health and the consolidation of power under Díaz-Canel, signaling a deliberate effort to project a new era of leadership.
The United States maintains strict sanctions against Cuba, first tightened by President Donald Trump in 2017 and largely continued in his second term. The measures target the Cuban military's economic interests and restrict remittances, squeezing the island's tourism and financial sectors. Cuban-American lobby groups in Florida, representing more than 1.5 million voters, have consistently pushed for those hardline policies.
Cuba's economy contracted by an estimated 2 percent in 2025, according to its central bank, following a 1.8 percent drop in 2024 driven by U.S. sanctions, lower tourism revenue and reduced aid from Venezuela. Any perceived leadership instability could further deter foreign investment and complicate debt restructuring talks with creditors in Paris and Madrid.
Díaz-Canel, 64, faces the challenge of modernizing Cuba's economy while maintaining ideological control and managing external pressures. Castro's retreat could empower younger party cadres but also expose the leadership to greater scrutiny without his unifying presence. The next Communist Party Congress, scheduled for 2027, will be a critical forum for formalizing any power shifts.
