WASHINGTON — Two-thirds of U.S. adults say a war with Iran is not worth fighting, according to a recent poll, and the White House knows it.
The survey found 66 percent of respondents oppose military action against Tehran — a number that puts President Trump in a familiar bind: his base's hawkish instincts pulling one way, the broader electorate pulling the other.
The administration has maintained a tough stance on Iran, recently imposing new sanctions on its oil exports. That posture sits in direct tension with public demand for de-escalation.
Hawkish members of Congress, often backed by defense industry money, have pushed for stronger action. Lockheed Martin spent $18.5 million on lobbying in 2025, according to OpenSecrets data, pressing for larger defense budgets and military readiness. Defense contractors broadly stand to gain from rising tensions — Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies typically see their stock prices climb on geopolitical instability, as investors price in new contracts.
Public opposition to an Iran conflict echoes early sentiment ahead of the 2003 Iraq invasion. A Gallup poll taken just before that war showed 58 percent support; by 2006, that figure had collapsed to 40 percent.
On one side of the debate, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies consistently argues for an aggressive posture toward Tehran, citing Iran's regional reach and nuclear program as direct threats to U.S. interests. On the other, the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft argues military intervention in the Middle East has proven costly in lives and money without achieving lasting U.S. objectives.
The financial stakes are real. The United States spent an estimated $2.4 trillion on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan through 2020, according to Brown University's Costs of War Project.
Any move toward military action faces resistance in Congress, particularly from members in swing districts facing reelection in November 2026. The House is set to debate the annual National Defense Authorization Act in September — a vote that will force those members to go on record.
The State Department continues to pursue diplomatic channels with European allies on Iran's nuclear program and regional activities. With midterms on the horizon, the political cost of starting a conflict could prove steep for Republicans — especially as voters consistently rank economic stability and health care ahead of foreign military action.
