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50 articles

Oil Surge Makes July 31 FOMC Meeting Live as Hike Odds Rise
Macro & Rates5h ago
Oil Surge Makes July 31 FOMC Meeting Live as Hike Odds Rise
Bond markets are repricing a 25-basis-point hike at the July 31 Fed meeting after a sharp jump in oil prices reignited inflation concerns across duration-sensitive portfolios.
Unemployment Claims Hit 60-Year Low, Pushing Fed Cut Odds to 5%
Macro & Rates11h ago
Unemployment Claims Hit 60-Year Low, Pushing Fed Cut Odds to 5%
Weekly jobless claims fell to a near six-decade low, lifting the two-year Treasury yield 8 basis points and cutting September rate-cut odds to 5 percent.
Fed Cut Odds Collapse as Resilience Narrative Locks In Higher-for-Longer Rates
Macro & Rates18h ago
Fed Cut Odds Collapse as Resilience Narrative Locks In Higher-for-Longer Rates
Futures now price a 68 percent probability the first Fed cut comes no earlier than March 2027, up from 45 percent three months ago, as sticky inflation grinds down easing bets
Bank of Russia Cuts Key Rate 25 BPS to 14% as Drone Strikes Strain Economy
Macro & Rates21h ago
Bank of Russia Cuts Key Rate 25 BPS to 14% as Drone Strikes Strain Economy
Moscow shifts toward growth stimulus, accepting higher inflation risk as Ukrainian drone attacks erode refining capacity and supply chains.
Charter Launches $3 Billion Debt Exchange to Push Out Maturities
Macro & RatesYesterday
Charter Launches $3 Billion Debt Exchange to Push Out Maturities
The cable operator offers cash and new 10-year notes for bonds maturing 2027–2030, cutting near-term refinancing risk as higher-for-longer rates persist
Fed Drops Forward Guidance, Two-Year Treasury Yield Jumps 8 Basis Points
Macro & RatesYesterday
Fed Drops Forward Guidance, Two-Year Treasury Yield Jumps 8 Basis Points
The Federal Reserve's shift to data-dependent communication lifted the two-year yield to 4.97 percent and cut September pause odds to 72 percent.
Gold Falls a Second Day as Energy Surge Lifts Two-Year Treasury Yield to 4.96%
Macro & RatesYesterday
Gold Falls a Second Day as Energy Surge Lifts Two-Year Treasury Yield to 4.96%
Crude oil futures gained 2.1 percent, driving a hawkish repricing in bond markets and pushing the two-year Treasury yield up seven basis points to 4.96 percent.
GIC Posts First Negative Real Return on Record: -0.3% Over Five Years
Macro & RatesYesterday
GIC Posts First Negative Real Return on Record: -0.3% Over Five Years
Singapore's sovereign wealth fund recorded its first negative real return in public history, hit by duration losses in fixed income and late-cycle equity pressure.
ECB Holds Rates, Keeps Further Hikes on Table as Services Inflation Stays Hot
Macro & Rates2d ago
ECB Holds Rates, Keeps Further Hikes on Table as Services Inflation Stays Hot
The Governing Council held the deposit rate at 4.00 percent for a second straight meeting, with President Christine Lagarde leaving the door open to additional tightening.
Yen's Trade-Weighted Index Falls Broadly as BOJ Policy Divergence Widens
Macro & Rates2d ago
Yen's Trade-Weighted Index Falls Broadly as BOJ Policy Divergence Widens
The yen's broad decline against major trading partners reflects sustained pressure from global interest rate differentials and the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose policy stance.
5% 10-Year Yield Reprices Cash-Negative AI Firms as Bond Market Shifts
Macro & Rates2d ago
5% 10-Year Yield Reprices Cash-Negative AI Firms as Bond Market Shifts
A sustained 5 percent 10-year Treasury yield raises the cost of capital for speculative AI companies, echoing past rate cycles that crippled highly leveraged sectors.
Apple Gains as Nvidia, Amazon Fall on Inflation Data That Delays Fed Rate Cuts
U.S. Equities62d ago
Apple Gains as Nvidia, Amazon Fall on Inflation Data That Delays Fed Rate Cuts
May CPI rose 0.5 percent, above forecasts, pushing back rate cut expectations and hitting growth stocks while defensive plays outperform
Warsh Elected FOMC Chair; Two-Year Yield Rises 10 Bps to 4.95 Percent
Macro & Rates63d ago
Warsh Elected FOMC Chair; Two-Year Yield Rises 10 Bps to 4.95 Percent
President Trump's appointment of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee immediately shifts market expectations toward a more restrictive monetary policy stance
Alphabet Drops 2.3%, Amazon Falls 2.1% as Bond Yields Hit Tech Stocks
U.S. Equities66d ago
Alphabet Drops 2.3%, Amazon Falls 2.1% as Bond Yields Hit Tech Stocks
High-growth technology shares face pressure as rising Treasury yields increase discount rates for future earnings
China Home Price Declines Slow Third Month as Developer Spreads Compress
Macro & Rates68d ago
China Home Price Declines Slow Third Month as Developer Spreads Compress
April data shows new home price drops eased for a third consecutive month, offering relief to global credit markets exposed to developer debt
Treasury Yields Climb Across Curve as Duration Risk Hammers Growth Stocks
Macro & Rates68d ago
Treasury Yields Climb Across Curve as Duration Risk Hammers Growth Stocks
Nasdaq falls 1.5 percent as bond market prices higher-for-longer Fed policy, compressing credit spreads and hitting tech valuations
Inflation Surge Hammers Nasdaq 1.5%; Nvidia Down 4.4% on Rate Hike Fears
U.S. Equities69d ago
Inflation Surge Hammers Nasdaq 1.5%; Nvidia Down 4.4% on Rate Hike Fears
April inflation data exceeded estimates, intensifying Fed tightening pressure and driving sharp declines in growth stocks
Warsh Hawkish Stance Drives Two-Year Treasury Yield Up 12 Basis Points to 5.15%
Macro & Rates72d ago
Warsh Hawkish Stance Drives Two-Year Treasury Yield Up 12 Basis Points to 5.15%
New Fed Chair emphasizes firm commitment to price stability, challenging rate cut expectations as short-dated Treasuries sell off
China Q1 Marriages Hit Record Low, show Structural Economic Drag
Macro & Rates76d ago
China Q1 Marriages Hit Record Low, show Structural Economic Drag
China recorded its lowest first-quarter marriage registrations, indicating demographic headwinds that will weigh on consumption and housing demand
Asia Equity Inflows Accelerate as Duration Risk Drives Rotation from U.S. Tech
Macro & Rates76d ago
Asia Equity Inflows Accelerate as Duration Risk Drives Rotation from U.S. Tech
Institutional flows target Asian markets as inverted U.S. yield curve and elevated Treasury duration risk prompt portfolio rebalancing
Two-Year Treasury Yield Hits 4.98% as Inflation Persistence Kills Rate Cut Bets
Macro & Rates76d ago
Two-Year Treasury Yield Hits 4.98% as Inflation Persistence Kills Rate Cut Bets
Fed funds futures now price 78% chance of June pause as shelter costs and energy prices maintain upward pressure
UOB Q1 Profit Drops 18% As Asia Banks Face Margin Pressure—10-Year Treasury Falls
Macro & Rates79d ago
UOB Q1 Profit Drops 18% As Asia Banks Face Margin Pressure—10-Year Treasury Falls
Singapore bank's earnings miss signals tightening credit conditions across Asia-Pacific, driving flight to quality in global bond markets
DuPont Raises Forecast on Pricing Power, Geopolitical Costs
Macro & Rates80d ago
DuPont Raises Forecast on Pricing Power, Geopolitical Costs
Company's price hikes offset rising input costs linked to Iran conflict, showing corporate margin resilience amid inflation.
Toyota's EV Push Shows Industrial Policy Split, Bond Markets Watch Inflation
Macro & Rates80d ago
Toyota's EV Push Shows Industrial Policy Split, Bond Markets Watch Inflation
Toyota's electric vehicle push, driven by competition from Chinese manufacturers, shows global industrial changes with effects on supply chains and inflation in developed economies.
Williams Affirms Fed Policy Adequacy — Yields Hold Firm Amidst Economic Uncertainty
Macro & Rates81d ago
Williams Affirms Fed Policy Adequacy — Yields Hold Firm Amidst Economic Uncertainty
New York Fed President John Williams stated the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is appropriately calibrated for current economic risks, signaling a sustained higher-for-longer rate environment.
Geopolitical Risk Premium Hardens, Yields Climb as Hormuz Transit Signals Inflationary Tailwinds
Macro & Rates81d ago
Geopolitical Risk Premium Hardens, Yields Climb as Hormuz Transit Signals Inflationary Tailwinds
A US-flagged Maersk ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz with military escort has amplified geopolitical tensions, signaling potential inflationary pressures that could impact central bank policy.
Hormuz Escalation Slams US Equities, S&P 500 Retreats 0.4 Percent
Macro & Rates81d ago
Hormuz Escalation Slams US Equities, S&P 500 Retreats 0.4 Percent
Geopolitical tensions surged in the Strait of Hormuz after a South Korean vessel explosion, with Iran asserting regional control, overshadowing robust first-quarter earnings and driving U.S. stock indices lower.
Geopolitical Tensions Drive Yield Volatility, Complicate Fed's Disinflationary Path
Macro & Rates81d ago
Geopolitical Tensions Drive Yield Volatility, Complicate Fed's Disinflationary Path
President Trump's call for South Korea to join a mission protecting ships near Iran introduces significant geopolitical risk, immediately impacting energy prices and central bank policy expectations.
Geopolitical Tensions Mount as Iran Claims Strait of Hormuz Standoff, Driving Safe-Haven Demand
Macro & Rates82d ago
Geopolitical Tensions Mount as Iran Claims Strait of Hormuz Standoff, Driving Safe-Haven Demand
Claims of a U.S. warship being turned back from the Strait of Hormuz, though denied by U.S. officials, inject a significant geopolitical risk premium into global energy and fixed-income markets.
UCB $2.2 Billion Buy Signals M&A Resilience Amid Stable Rates
Macro & Rates82d ago
UCB $2.2 Billion Buy Signals M&A Resilience Amid Stable Rates
Belgian pharma group UCB's substantial acquisition of Candid Therapeutics underscores how prevailing interest rate conditions and broader economic stability are shaping corporate M&A strategies and capital deployment.
Air Travel Disruptions Signal Lingering Supply-Side Inflationary Pressures
Macro & Rates83d ago
Air Travel Disruptions Signal Lingering Supply-Side Inflationary Pressures
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy's warning to Spirit passengers underscores operational fragilities that continue to fuel services inflation, reinforcing a hawkish Federal Reserve stance and impacting duration risk.
Sumy Village Reports Ignite Geopolitical Risk, Bond Yields Reflect Flight to Safety
Macro & Rates83d ago
Sumy Village Reports Ignite Geopolitical Risk, Bond Yields Reflect Flight to Safety
Conflicting accounts regarding control of a key village in Ukraine’s Sumy region introduce fresh uncertainty, prompting institutional investors to reassess risk premiums across global fixed income markets.
Geopolitical Risk Premium Rises on Iran Rhetoric, Complicating Fed's Path
Macro & Rates84d ago
Geopolitical Risk Premium Rises on Iran Rhetoric, Complicating Fed's Path
Senator Lindsey Graham's call for decisive U.S. action against Iran injects new uncertainty into global markets, forcing a reassessment of inflation expectations and Treasury yields.
Berkshire's $11.35 Billion Earnings Signal Economic Resilience, Challenging Fed Rate Cut Hopes
Macro & Rates84d ago
Berkshire's $11.35 Billion Earnings Signal Economic Resilience, Challenging Fed Rate Cut Hopes
Robust quarterly results from Berkshire Hathaway underscore a surprisingly resilient U.S. economy, compelling the fixed income market to recalibrate its expectations for Federal Reserve policy easing.
NYC Policy Spat Signals Fiscal Headwinds, Bond Spreads Under Scrutiny
Macro & Rates85d ago
NYC Policy Spat Signals Fiscal Headwinds, Bond Spreads Under Scrutiny
A high-stakes meeting between Citadel CEO Ken Griffin and New York Governor Kathy Hochul highlights escalating policy tensions in the state, prompting concerns over capital flight and municipal bond stability amidst broader macroeconomic uncertainty.
Powell's Rate Path Reshapes Tech: Alphabet Soars, Nvidia Stumbles
U.S. Equities85d ago
Powell's Rate Path Reshapes Tech: Alphabet Soars, Nvidia Stumbles
The Federal Reserve's updated interest rate projections triggered a bifurcated response across U.S. equities, signaling a critical juncture for growth and value investors.
Consumer Spending Under Pressure as Fed Rates Bite; Discretionary Stocks Face Downside
U.S. Equities85d ago
Consumer Spending Under Pressure as Fed Rates Bite; Discretionary Stocks Face Downside
The Federal Reserve's sustained hawkish stance threatens to crimp consumer purchasing power, directly impacting discretionary spending and raising red flags for equity valuations across the board.
Geopolitical Tensions Escalate in Gulf, Driving Flight to Safety Across Yield Curve
Macro & Rates94d ago
Geopolitical Tensions Escalate in Gulf, Driving Flight to Safety Across Yield Curve
Iran's accusation against the United States over a vessel seizure in the Gulf of Oman injects significant risk premium into global markets, prompting a sharp bid for U.S. Treasuries and impacting inflation expectations.
Green Transition Reshapes Global Capital Flows, Intensifying Duration Risk
Macro & Rates95d ago
Green Transition Reshapes Global Capital Flows, Intensifying Duration Risk
The accelerating shift toward climate tech and clean energy is fundamentally altering fixed income landscapes, driving sovereign and corporate bond re-pricing amid evolving policy mandates and escalating investment.
Sticky March Inflation Pushes Fed Rate Cuts Deep Into 2026
Macro & Rates101d ago
Sticky March Inflation Pushes Fed Rate Cuts Deep Into 2026
Persistent price pressures in latest CPI report force bond markets to recalibrate expectations, solidifying a higher-for-longer rate outlook
IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast to 2.5% on Middle East War Escalation
Macro & Rates103d ago
IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast to 2.5% on Middle East War Escalation
Fund warns geopolitical tensions threaten supply chains, energy markets as inflation forecast rises to 4.5%
Energy Price Surge Ignites Inflation Worries, Pushing Yield Curve Steeper
Macro & Rates104d ago
Energy Price Surge Ignites Inflation Worries, Pushing Yield Curve Steeper
Climbing gasoline and airfares signal persistent inflation pressures, forcing bond markets to reprice rate cut expectations and increasing duration risk across fixed income portfolios
Oil Cargo Scramble Ignites Supply Fears, Yield Curve Signals Inflation Pressure
Macro & Rates105d ago
Oil Cargo Scramble Ignites Supply Fears, Yield Curve Signals Inflation Pressure
A desperate scramble for crude oil cargoes persists globally, signaling persistent inflationary forces that challenge central bank disinflation narratives
Crypto Fear Spikes as Mixed Equity Signals, Flat Yield Curve Signal Fed Uncertainty
Macro & Rates105d ago
Crypto Fear Spikes as Mixed Equity Signals, Flat Yield Curve Signal Fed Uncertainty
Cryptocurrency sentiment plummets to extreme fear levels while equities show mixed performance as bond markets continue pricing in prolonged higher rates
Consumer Credit Jumps 2.2%: Sticky Inflation Risk Rises
Macro & Rates108d ago
Consumer Credit Jumps 2.2%: Sticky Inflation Risk Rises
February's 2.2% SAAR rise in consumer credit, driven by nonrevolving loans, indicates robust demand and potential inflation stickiness, challenging the Fed's rate cut outlook.
Pope's Peace Call Highlights Inflation Risk Amid Global Conflict
Macro & Rates110d ago
Pope's Peace Call Highlights Inflation Risk Amid Global Conflict
Pope Leo's Easter plea for an end to global conflicts underscores the persistent inflationary pressures and geopolitical risk premium embedded in sovereign bond yields, complicating central bank policy paths.
Trump Iran Rhetoric Boosts Geopolitical Risk in Rates Outlook
Macro & Rates110d ago
Trump Iran Rhetoric Boosts Geopolitical Risk in Rates Outlook
President Trump's recent comments on an Iran rescue operation, steeped in religious rhetoric, inject a fresh layer of geopolitical uncertainty, compelling fixed-income participants to re-evaluate duration risk and inflation expectations.
Stubborn Data Dents Rate Cut Bets, Yield Curve Stays Inverted
Macro & Rates112d ago
Stubborn Data Dents Rate Cut Bets, Yield Curve Stays Inverted
Market participants recalibrate dovish expectations as recent economic indicators challenge the Federal Reserve's path, deepening the yield curve inversion and amplifying duration risk across fixed income portfolios.
Asia Manufacturing Resilience Masks War-Driven Inflationary Pressures
Macro & Rates115d ago
Asia Manufacturing Resilience Masks War-Driven Inflationary Pressures
Robust factory output across Asia provides a critical global economic anchor, yet escalating geopolitical tensions are now visibly driving up commodity prices, forcing central banks to confront persistent inflationary risks.
Trump Project Halted: Yields Rise Amid Executive Clash
Macro & Rates115d ago
Trump Project Halted: Yields Rise Amid Executive Clash
President Trump's appeal against a judicial halt on his $400M White House project raises fiscal policy questions, suggesting potential spending constraints and increased political uncertainty for bond markets.